Few will admit it, but Horsehay shows pollsters have no idea what’s going on


Yesterday, a poll was published claiming – based on a sample of around 1600 people – that only 51% of people who voted Labour in 2015 would do so if there was a General Election now. It also claimed that 73% of those who voted Tory would continue to do so.

Much was made of that by anti-Corbyn MPs and commentators, of course.

On the same day, unmentioned by the news channels, in a council by-election in Horsehay and Lightmoor in Shropshire – a county that, at the moment, has only Tory MPs – was won by Labour from the Conservatives on a 24,3% swing:


These figures mean that an area that previously gave the Tory party almost twice as many votes as to Labour, suddenly swung massively – and the supposedly dangerous UKIP lost share as well. To Labour – the opposite of what’s meant to happen if…

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